The final snapshot.
Mayoral voting intention
Reported candidate preference; decided / leaning treatment not specified
Undecided treatment is identified in the response-base and methodology records. Percentages may be rounded.
Source: Northbound Insights, supplied report figures. Response base: Reported candidate preference; decided / leaning treatment not specified. Subgroup interview counts were not supplied.
McCallum has the largest named share in this snapshot. Without a documented sampling design, undecided treatment or subgroup tables, the figures do not support a certain-winner claim.
The named-candidate gap is five points
The supplied Surrey estimate is McCallum 43%, Locke 38% and other candidates 19%, from 700 respondents. The totals describe reported candidate preference; the exact treatment and interview count for undecided or leaning respondents were not supplied.
Two cities require separate samples
Surrey’s 700 interviews are distinct from the 800 Vancouver interviews in the same submission. The samples are not pooled into a 1,500-person mayoral survey or assigned one shared sampling margin. Each city’s candidate shares refer to its own electorate.
Policing and taxes need their own evidence
The accompanying narrative emphasizes the police transition and municipal tax pressures. It does not include numeric issue measures, regional crosstabs or a time series for Surrey. The report preserves the toplines without inventing neighbourhood results or treating the narrative as a tested causal explanation.
Preserve the pre-vote snapshot
The supplied report date is October 16, one day before the municipal election, following October 12–15 interviews. This page records that source timeline separately from its archive publication date. It does not rewrite the survey to match a later counted result.
How to read
this study.
The supplied methodology is preserved alongside its disclosure gaps, so the total sample, ballot base and subgroup estimates can be assessed separately.
Study design and disclosure · n=700
- Research provider
- Northbound Insights
- Report provenance
- Figures, release label and methodology supplied by Northbound for this website update on 25 October 2026. The underlying interviews have not been independently audited here.
- Release date
- 16 Oct 2026
- First publication of this web page
- 25 Oct 2026
- Fieldwork
- 12 Oct 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
- Population
- Surrey municipal electorate; eligibility screening was not documented in the supplied text
- Total interviews
- 700
- Ballot denominator
- Reported candidate preference; decided / leaning treatment not specified. Effective sample size was not supplied.
- Undecided
- Not supplied
- Interview mode
- Not supplied for the Surrey study.
- Recruitment and sampling
- The submission gives a Surrey sample of 700 but does not specify eligibility screening, sampling frame, selection or recruitment.
- Weighting
- Not supplied for this city-specific study.
- Supplied precision statement
- The combined Vancouver / Surrey submission cites ±3.5 percentage points without a separate city-specific precision statement.
- Uncertainty assessment
- The shared ±3.5 pp figure is not documented as a Surrey-specific margin. Sample size alone cannot establish it, and it is not applied to this report’s chart or candidate gap.
- Commissioning / funding
- Not identified in the supplied material.
- Questionnaire / response rates
- Exact wording, order, response options, response and completion rates were not supplied.
- Subgroup bases / design effects
- Unweighted and weighted subgroup bases, weighting distributions and design-effect estimates were not supplied.
- Tracking design
- No earlier comparable wave was supplied for this report.
Sample size alone does not validate a probability margin for a mixed-mode study. Reported margins are retained as source statements in the disclosure record. They are not used as confidence intervals for the charts, point-estimate gaps or subgroup estimates.
The figures,
open to inspection.
- Northbound Insights · report figures and methodologyRelease 16 Oct 2026 · supplied for this website on 25 Oct 2026. Earlier-wave metadata is left blank where unavailable.
- Official election / referendum information ↗Election context and candidate records; not a source or endorsement of this poll.
This report presents the figures supplied by Northbound. It does not reconstruct respondent records, infer missing categories or claim independent verification of the fieldwork. A point-estimate lead is not a forecast of the outcome. Publication standards.