The final snapshot.
Mayoral voting intention
Reported candidate preference; decided / leaning treatment not specified
Undecided treatment is identified in the response-base and methodology records. Percentages may be rounded.
Source: Northbound Insights, supplied report figures. Response base: Reported candidate preference; decided / leaning treatment not specified. Subgroup interview counts were not supplied.
The two named candidates account for 78% of reported support. The remaining 22% is a combined category, not a single challenger or a transferable bloc.
A four-point difference in the final snapshot
The supplied figures place Fry at 41% and Sim at 37%, with 22% across other candidates. The sample size is 800 Vancouver respondents. A city-specific decided-voter count and an undecided share were not supplied.
The other-candidate group remains substantial
More than one in five of the reported candidate-preference responses sit outside the two named contenders. Combining those choices is useful for a compact topline but does not reveal which other candidate leads, or how respondents would behave on a different ballot.
Campaign explanations are hypotheses, rather than measured transfers
The supplied narrative discusses taxes, housing and the Park Board. No corresponding issue percentages, question wording or earlier Vancouver tracking tables were provided. This report therefore does not attribute the measured ordering to a specific issue or assert that a demographic group switched candidates.
The pre-election record stays distinct from the result
Fieldwork ended October 15, with the supplied release dated October 16, before the October 17 vote. This page archives those submitted survey figures; no later election outcome is used to generate or adjust them.
How to read
this study.
The supplied methodology is preserved alongside its disclosure gaps, so the total sample, ballot base and subgroup estimates can be assessed separately.
Study design and disclosure · n=800
- Research provider
- Northbound Insights
- Report provenance
- Figures, release label and methodology supplied by Northbound for this website update on 25 October 2026. The underlying interviews have not been independently audited here.
- Release date
- 16 Oct 2026
- First publication of this web page
- 25 Oct 2026
- Fieldwork
- 12 Oct 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
- Population
- Vancouver municipal electorate; eligibility screening was not documented in the supplied text
- Total interviews
- 800
- Ballot denominator
- Reported candidate preference; decided / leaning treatment not specified. Effective sample size was not supplied.
- Undecided
- Not supplied
- Interview mode
- Not supplied for the Vancouver study.
- Recruitment and sampling
- The submission gives a Vancouver sample of 800 but does not specify eligibility screening, sampling frame, selection or recruitment.
- Weighting
- Not supplied for this city-specific study.
- Supplied precision statement
- The combined Vancouver / Surrey submission cites ±3.5 percentage points without a separate city-specific precision statement.
- Uncertainty assessment
- The shared submission cites ±3.5 pp but does not establish the Vancouver sampling design or a confidence level for this figure. No conventional margin, candidate-gap significance test or win probability is assigned here.
- Commissioning / funding
- Not identified in the supplied material.
- Questionnaire / response rates
- Exact wording, order, response options, response and completion rates were not supplied.
- Subgroup bases / design effects
- Unweighted and weighted subgroup bases, weighting distributions and design-effect estimates were not supplied.
- Tracking design
- No earlier comparable wave was supplied for this report.
Sample size alone does not validate a probability margin for a mixed-mode study. Reported margins are retained as source statements in the disclosure record. They are not used as confidence intervals for the charts, point-estimate gaps or subgroup estimates.
The figures,
open to inspection.
- Northbound Insights · report figures and methodologyRelease 16 Oct 2026 · supplied for this website on 25 Oct 2026. Earlier-wave metadata is left blank where unavailable.
- Official election / referendum information ↗Election context and candidate records; not a source or endorsement of this poll.
This report presents the figures supplied by Northbound. It does not reconstruct respondent records, infer missing categories or claim independent verification of the fieldwork. A point-estimate lead is not a forecast of the outcome. Publication standards.